由于氣價高企、電價機制疏導(dǎo)滯后等因素，天然氣發(fā)電依然在生存線上徘徊。

　　Due to factors such as high gas prices and lagging electricity pricing mechanisms, natural gas power generation is still hovering on the survival line.

　　作為中國GDP第一強省，廣東省是名副其實的天然氣利用大省。當(dāng)前，廣東天然氣發(fā)電機組占全國天然氣總裝機容量的四分之一。廣東省的經(jīng)濟布局，為天然氣機組發(fā)揮調(diào)峰優(yōu)勢提供了天然土壤。在用地緊張、地價較高、追求低碳發(fā)展的珠三角地區(qū)，若要近距離布局電源，天然氣發(fā)電無疑是最理想的選擇。

　　As the province with the strongest GDP in China, Guangdong Province is truly a major province in natural gas utilization. Currently, Guangdong's natural gas power generation units account for a quarter of the country's total installed natural gas capacity. The economic layout of Guangdong Province provides natural soil for natural gas units to leverage their peak shaving advantages. In the Pearl River Delta region where land is scarce, land prices are high, and low-carbon development is pursued, natural gas power generation is undoubtedly the most ideal choice for close range layout of power sources.

　　廣東還擁有多元化的受氣結(jié)構(gòu)：從中國南海氣田通過海底管道輸送的天然氣，深圳大鵬LNG等沿海接收站的海外長協(xié)、LNG現(xiàn)貨氣以及通過西氣東輸二線和三線抵達廣州的管道氣，廣東省的氣源具備其他省份難以企及的優(yōu)勢。

　　Guangdong also has a diversified gas receiving structure: natural gas transported from the South China Sea gas fields through submarine pipelines, overseas long-term contracts and LNG spot gas from coastal receiving stations such as Shenzhen Dapeng LNG, and pipeline gas arriving in Guangzhou through the West East Gas Pipeline 2 and 3. Guangdong's gas sources have advantages that other provinces cannot match.

　　2025年上半年，廣東省燃?xì)鈾C組更是進入密集投產(chǎn)期。國家能源集團肇慶電廠二期、國能清遠(yuǎn)石角熱電一期燃機項目、深能媽灣電廠升級改造項目、深燃熱電高埗電廠燃?xì)鉄犭娐?lián)產(chǎn)改擴建等多個項目積極落地投產(chǎn)。截至今年6月底，廣東天然氣發(fā)電總裝機達5434.2萬千瓦，同比增長22.42%。

　　In the first half of 2025, gas turbines in Guangdong Province will enter a period of intensive production. Multiple projects, including the second phase of the National Energy Group Zhaoqing Power Plant, the first phase of the Guoneng Qingyuan Shijiao Thermal Power Plant gas turbine project, the upgrading and renovation project of the Shenneng Mawan Power Plant, and the expansion of the Shenran Thermal Power Gaobu Power Plant gas-fired cogeneration project, have been actively put into operation. As of the end of June this year, the total installed capacity of natural gas power generation in Guangdong reached 54.342 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 22.42%.

　　近日發(fā)布的《2025年廣東電力市場半年報告》顯示，截至2025年6月底，廣東電網(wǎng)統(tǒng)調(diào)裝機容量2.423億千瓦，同比增長18%。從分裝機類型來看，煤電、氣電依舊是主流，裝機容量占比52.16%。

　　The recently released "Half Year Report on Guangdong Power Market in 2025" shows that as of the end of June 2025, the installed capacity of Guangdong power grid through unified commissioning was 242.3 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18%. From the perspective of packaging machine types, coal-fired and gas-fired power are still the mainstream, accounting for 52.16% of installed capacity.

　　另外一個燃?xì)鈾C組密集上馬的區(qū)域是川渝地區(qū)。8月，華能重慶兩江燃機和川投達州燃?xì)怆娬径陧椖客懂a(chǎn)運行。華能重慶兩江燃機二期項目4號機組正式投產(chǎn)后，總裝機容量躍升至241.8萬千瓦，成為西南地區(qū)規(guī)模最大的天然氣清潔能源電廠。

　　Another area where gas turbines are densely installed is the Sichuan Chongqing region. In August, the Huaneng Chongqing Liangjiang Gas Turbine and Chuantou Dazhou Gas Power Station Phase II projects were put into operation. After Unit 4 of the Huaneng Chongqing Liangjiang Gas Turbine Phase II Project was officially put into operation, the total installed capacity jumped to 2.418 million kilowatts, becoming the largest natural gas clean energy power plant in the southwest region.

　　川渝地區(qū)天然氣資源豐富，產(chǎn)量占全國的四分之一，尤其是近些年該地區(qū)頁巖氣資源大規(guī)模開發(fā)，更是帶來了豐富的氣源。2022年，傳統(tǒng)水電大省四川省，在經(jīng)歷了極端高溫和嚴(yán)重干旱期間水力發(fā)電量的大幅下降，電力供應(yīng)一度十分緊張。之后，為應(yīng)對極端條件下缺電，四川規(guī)劃了規(guī)模空前的燃?xì)獍l(fā)電項目。這些項目迅速得到核準(zhǔn)，并進入建設(shè)階段。

　　The Sichuan Chongqing region is rich in natural gas resources, accounting for a quarter of the country's total production. Especially in recent years, the large-scale development of shale gas resources in the region has brought abundant gas sources. In 2022, Sichuan Province, a traditional hydropower powerhouse, experienced a significant decline in hydroelectric power generation during extreme high temperatures and severe droughts, leading to a severe shortage of electricity supply. Afterwards, in response to extreme power shortages, Sichuan planned an unprecedentedly large-scale gas-fired power generation project. These projects were quickly approved and entered the construction phase.

　　2024年，四川的燃?xì)庋b機容量從最初的70萬KW增至288萬千瓦，預(yù)計到2025年底，四川在建和建成的氣電裝機容量將達1200萬千瓦以上。兩年內(nèi)，該省的天然氣發(fā)電量將在2023年的水平上增長15倍。這些電廠的設(shè)計目的是在水力發(fā)電減少時滿足峰值負(fù)荷。然而，它們會不可避免地與天然氣外輸爭奪氣源。

　　In 2024, the gas installed capacity in Sichuan will increase from the initial 700000 kW to 2.88 million kW. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the gas and electricity installed capacity under construction or completed in Sichuan will reach over 12 million kW. Within two years, the natural gas power generation in the province will increase by 15 times compared to the level in 2023. The design purpose of these power plants is to meet peak loads when hydroelectric power generation is reduced. However, they will inevitably compete with natural gas exports for gas sources.

　　除了傳統(tǒng)的燃機發(fā)展區(qū)域外，安徽、湖南等一些省份也開始陸續(xù)投建新的機組。

　　In addition to traditional gas turbine development areas, some provinces such as Anhui and Hunan have also begun to invest in building new units.

　　回顧“十四五”前3年，我國氣電新增裝機約2400萬千瓦，年均增長800萬千瓦。中電聯(lián)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2024年，我國氣電裝機新投產(chǎn)1899萬千瓦，同比多投產(chǎn)873萬千瓦，新投產(chǎn)裝機規(guī)模創(chuàng)歷年新高。2024年底，我國總裝機容量1.4億千瓦，全年發(fā)電用氣量為661億立方米，增速為6.6%。

　　Looking back at the first three years of the 14th Five Year Plan, China's new installed capacity of gas and electricity was about 24 million kilowatts, with an average annual growth of 8 million kilowatts. According to data from China Electricity Council, in 2024, China's newly installed gas and electricity capacity will reach 18.99 million kilowatts, an increase of 8.73 million kilowatts compared to the same period last year, and the scale of newly installed capacity will reach a new historical high. By the end of 2024, China's total installed capacity will be 140 million kilowatts, and the annual gas consumption for power generation will be 66.1 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 6.6%.

　　在我國，天然氣發(fā)電裝機主要集中在長三角區(qū)域的江浙滬、珠三角區(qū)域廣東，以及京津冀等負(fù)荷中心省市。截至2024年底，國內(nèi)天然氣發(fā)電裝機在全國發(fā)電裝機結(jié)構(gòu)中占比4.3%；年發(fā)電量約3171億千瓦時，約占全社會用電量的3.2%。

　　In China, the installed capacity of natural gas power generation is mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong, and load center provinces and cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. As of the end of 2024, the proportion of domestic natural gas power generation installed capacity in the national power generation installed capacity structure is 4.3%; The annual power generation is about 317.1 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for about 3.2% of the total electricity consumption in society.

　　據(jù)中石油經(jīng)濟技術(shù)研究院發(fā)布的《2024年國內(nèi)外油氣行業(yè)發(fā)展報告》預(yù)測，2025年，發(fā)電用氣將引領(lǐng)我國天然氣消費增長，同比增長8.9%至720億立方米。預(yù)計2025年全國氣電新增裝機超2000萬千瓦，總裝機容量超1.6億千瓦。

　　According to the "2024 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" released by the China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, it is predicted that by 2025, power generation gas will lead the growth of natural gas consumption in China, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% to 72 billion cubic meters. It is expected that by 2025, the newly installed capacity of gas and electricity in China will exceed 20 million kilowatts, and the total installed capacity will exceed 160 million kilowatts.

　　看似蓬勃的發(fā)展態(tài)勢下，困擾天然氣發(fā)電行業(yè)多年的問題--行業(yè)虧損，依然沒有得到解決。燃?xì)獍l(fā)電成本居高不下，國際LNG價格波動導(dǎo)致部分電廠“多發(fā)多虧”；電價機制中，氣電的調(diào)峰價值并未充分顯現(xiàn)，電價疏導(dǎo)機制滯后，靈活保供優(yōu)勢難匹配經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)性等這些矛盾，正構(gòu)成當(dāng)下燃?xì)鈾C組生存必須突破的瓶頸。

　　Despite the seemingly thriving development trend, the problem that has plagued the natural gas power generation industry for many years - industry losses - has not yet been resolved. The high cost of gas-fired power generation and the fluctuation of international LNG prices have led to some power plants' excessive production; In the electricity pricing mechanism, the peak shaving value of gas and electricity has not been fully demonstrated, the electricity price diversion mechanism lags behind, and the advantages of flexible supply guarantee are difficult to match with economic sustainability, which are the bottlenecks that must be overcome for the survival of gas turbines at present.

　　艱難的生存

　　Difficult survival

　　隨著可再生能源的發(fā)展，天然氣在能源轉(zhuǎn)型中找到立足之地并不容易。行業(yè)內(nèi)普遍認(rèn)為，燃?xì)獍l(fā)電能夠快速啟停，這使得它能夠在新能源發(fā)電出力不足時滿足電力調(diào)峰需求，氣電可作為支撐可再生能源消納的重要調(diào)節(jié)電源。

　　With the development of renewable energy, it is not easy for natural gas to find a foothold in the energy transition. It is widely believed in the industry that gas-fired power generation can quickly start and stop, which enables it to meet the demand for peak shaving of electricity when the output of new energy generation is insufficient. Gas electricity can serve as an important regulating power source to support the consumption of renewable energy.

　　盡管天然氣發(fā)電機組的優(yōu)勢顯而易見，但不容忽視的是，天然氣發(fā)電的經(jīng)濟性制約著該行業(yè)的長期發(fā)展。燃料價格過高，始終是氣電發(fā)展的掣肘。

　　Although the advantages of natural gas power generation units are obvious, it cannot be ignored that the economic viability of natural gas power generation restricts the long-term development of the industry. The high fuel prices have always been a hindrance to the development of gas and electricity.

　　氣電的燃料成本占比高達85%左右，受資源稟賦限制，中國天然氣供應(yīng)40%左右的量需要依賴進口，天然氣價格長期偏高。國內(nèi)天然氣產(chǎn)地與用氣地區(qū)之間的距離較遠(yuǎn)，管輸費高，加重了天然氣發(fā)電的成本負(fù)擔(dān)。

　　The fuel cost of gas and electricity accounts for about 85%, and due to resource endowment limitations, about 40% of China's natural gas supply relies on imports, resulting in long-term high natural gas prices. The distance between domestic natural gas production areas and gas consuming regions is relatively long, resulting in high pipeline transportation costs, which increases the cost burden of natural gas power generation.

　　氣價高和資源緊張是制約氣電發(fā)展的最大因素，因而高成本和電力價格倒掛則是氣電發(fā)展受限的最大矛盾點。根據(jù)測算，假設(shè)天然氣價格在2.2～2.7元/立方米之間，按每千瓦時電耗氣0.2立方米計算，氣電綜合發(fā)電成本約0.59～0.72元/千瓦時。

　　High gas prices and resource constraints are the biggest factors restricting the development of gas and electricity. Therefore, high costs and inverted electricity prices are the biggest contradictions that limit the development of gas and electricity. According to calculations, assuming the natural gas price is between 2.2 and 2.7 yuan/cubic meter, and based on a gas consumption of 0.2 cubic meters per kilowatt hour, the comprehensive cost of gas electricity generation is approximately 0.59 to 0.72 yuan/kilowatt hour.

　　燃?xì)獍l(fā)電較高的變動成本是其參與現(xiàn)貨市場競爭面臨的最大挑戰(zhàn)，市場化條件下燃?xì)鈾C組的電量競爭處于弱勢。廣東一位燃?xì)怆姀S的內(nèi)部人士稱，2022年俄烏沖突發(fā)生后，天然氣價格一度漲到4元/立方米。彼時，飆升的LNG價格導(dǎo)致廣東許多燃?xì)獍l(fā)電機組停產(chǎn)停運。當(dāng)年，燃?xì)獍l(fā)電量下降了7%，全省37家燃?xì)獍l(fā)電公司中只有兩家盈利。雖然近期供需緊張有所緩解，但氣價依然在2.8元/立方米的高位。

　　The high variable cost of gas-fired power generation is the biggest challenge it faces in participating in spot market competition, and under market-oriented conditions, the electricity competition of gas-fired units is weak. An insider from a gas power plant in Guangdong said that after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the price of natural gas once rose to 4 yuan/m3. At that time, the soaring LNG prices led to the shutdown of many gas-fired power generation units in Guangdong. At that time, gas power generation decreased by 7%, and only two out of 37 gas power generation companies in the province were profitable. Although the recent supply-demand tension has eased, gas prices remain at a high level of 2.8 yuan/cubic meter.

　　廣東70%的燃?xì)獍l(fā)電，依賴進口的LNG。這種依賴帶來了潛在的風(fēng)險--全球天然氣價格易受地緣政治動蕩的影響。較高的天然氣價格，使得天然氣發(fā)電的度電成本居高不下。盡管上網(wǎng)電價在一定范圍內(nèi)，但當(dāng)LNG價格達到較高水平時，電廠的盈虧平衡點上網(wǎng)電價依然高于省內(nèi)上網(wǎng)電價的上限。這也導(dǎo)致存在終端銷售電價無法完全覆蓋燃料成本的情況。

　　70% of Guangdong's gas-fired power generation relies on imported LNG. This dependence brings potential risks - global natural gas prices are susceptible to geopolitical turbulence. The high price of natural gas has resulted in a high cost per kilowatt hour for natural gas power generation. Although the on grid electricity price is within a certain range, when the LNG price reaches a high level, the breakeven point of the power plant's on grid electricity price is still higher than the upper limit of the provincial on grid electricity price. This also leads to situations where terminal sales electricity prices cannot fully cover fuel costs.

　　由于燃料成本較高，燃?xì)獍l(fā)電機組的上網(wǎng)電價水平長期處于高位，因此一些地方政府采取了兩部制電價、直接給予財政補貼等方式來加以疏導(dǎo)。

　　Due to the high cost of fuel, the on grid electricity price level of gas-fired generators has remained high for a long time. Therefore, some local governments have adopted a two-part electricity price system and directly provided financial subsidies to alleviate the situation.

　　江浙地區(qū)的氣電發(fā)展模式與廣東不同。從裝機規(guī)模看，截至2024年底，江蘇的天然氣發(fā)電裝機規(guī)模達到2150萬千瓦，浙江達到1357萬千瓦。盡管江浙裝機量在全國排名第二和第三位，但規(guī)模遠(yuǎn)低于廣東。

　　The development model of gas and electricity in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is different from that in Guangdong. From the perspective of installed capacity, by the end of 2024, the installed capacity of natural gas power generation in Jiangsu will reach 21.5 million kilowatts, and in Zhejiang it will reach 13.57 million kilowatts. Although Jiangsu and Zhejiang have the second and third highest installed capacity in the country, their scale is far lower than that of Guangdong.

　　在江浙地區(qū)，氣電機組基本未完全進入電力市場。浙江去年曾嘗試將天然氣發(fā)電機組納入電力市場，今年又退出。整體來看，這兩個省份的氣電雖名義上歸為“市場電”，但仍帶有較強的“計劃電”痕跡。

　　In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, gas-fired power units have not fully entered the electricity market. Zhejiang attempted to include natural gas generators in the electricity market last year, but withdrew again this year. Overall, although the gas and electricity in these two provinces are nominally classified as "market electricity", they still have strong traces of "planned electricity".

　　以浙江為例。其采用了獨特的氣電定價模式：一方面，容量定價部分會充分保障電廠收益；另一方面，電量定價與氣源價格聯(lián)動。根據(jù)燃?xì)怆姀S的出力情況和天然氣價格，定期核算天然氣的發(fā)電成本，定期調(diào)整電量電價。

　　Taking Zhejiang as an example. It adopts a unique gas electricity pricing model: on the one hand, the capacity pricing part will fully guarantee the power plant's revenue; On the other hand, electricity pricing is linked to gas source pricing. Based on the output of gas-fired power plants and natural gas prices, regularly calculate the cost of natural gas power generation and adjust electricity prices regularly.

　　“氣電聯(lián)動”的定價模式可以為燃?xì)鈾C組的發(fā)電成本進行一定程度的托底，但弊端是電廠對于機組的利用缺乏主動權(quán)，只能根據(jù)氣源或者發(fā)電安排來起停機組。

　　The pricing model of "gas electricity linkage" can provide a certain degree of support for the power generation cost of gas-fired units, but the disadvantage is that power plants lack initiative in the utilization of units and can only start and stop units based on gas sources or power generation arrangements.

　　隨著天然氣發(fā)電裝機容量的不斷提升，未來價格疏導(dǎo)的壓力越來越大。結(jié)果是氣電價格難以有效合理疏導(dǎo)，氣電企業(yè)發(fā)電的積極性因此受挫。

　　With the continuous increase in installed capacity of natural gas power generation, the pressure of price easing in the future is increasing. The result is that the price of gas and electricity is difficult to effectively and reasonably guide, which has dampened the enthusiasm of gas and electricity enterprises to generate electricity.

　　更為艱難的是，隨著各省新能源裝機比例的不斷提高，燃?xì)鈾C組的發(fā)電小時數(shù)在一路走低。由于資源與環(huán)境等因素的制約，中國天然氣發(fā)電的利用小時數(shù)一直相對較低，約為2500～2600小時。特別是天然氣發(fā)電的變動成本一般高于煤、水、核、風(fēng)、光等電源，導(dǎo)致氣電實際出力情況受到其他電源品種的嚴(yán)重擠壓，僅在枯水、夜間等電力供應(yīng)緊張時段才能保持較長時間運行，整體上影響了氣電的發(fā)電效率。

　　Even more difficult is that with the continuous increase in the proportion of new energy installed in various provinces, the power generation hours of gas turbines have been declining. Due to resource and environmental constraints, the utilization hours of natural gas power generation in China have been relatively low, ranging from 2500 to 2600 hours. In particular, the variable costs of natural gas power generation are generally higher than those of coal, water, nuclear, wind, solar and other power sources, resulting in severe pressure on the actual output of gas power from other power sources. It can only maintain long-term operation during periods of tight power supply such as dry water and nighttime, which overall affects the efficiency of gas power generation.

　　在采訪中，發(fā)電企業(yè)普遍認(rèn)為，2025年，天然氣發(fā)電機組的利用小時數(shù)會進一步降低。廣東一些機組的年利用小時數(shù)甚至?xí)档?000小時以下。和煤電在新型電力系統(tǒng)中的遭遇一樣，氣電的生存空間受到了快速增長的新能源裝機的擠壓。

　　In interviews, power generation companies generally believe that the utilization hours of natural gas generators will further decrease by 2025. The annual utilization hours of some units in Guangdong may even drop below 2000 hours. Like coal-fired power in the new power system, the survival space of gas-fired power has been squeezed by the rapidly growing installed capacity of new energy.

　　困難的背后

　　Behind the difficulties

　　燃?xì)獍l(fā)電經(jīng)營困難的原因復(fù)雜而多元。

　　The reasons for the difficulties in operating gas-fired power generation are complex and diverse.

　　中國氣電主要布局在長三角、珠三角和京津地區(qū)，南方以調(diào)峰機組為主，北方以熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)機組為主。受氣源供應(yīng)、管網(wǎng)建設(shè)、電價承受力等因素影響，廣東、江浙滬、京津等地區(qū)氣電裝機容量較高，占全國比重約80%。廣東、浙江、上海等省市調(diào)峰氣電占比約70%~80%；北京、天津由于冬季供暖需求大，全部是熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)機組，江蘇工業(yè)供熱負(fù)荷較多，70%以上為熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)機組。

　　China's gas power is mainly deployed in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing Tianjin region, with peak shaving units in the south and cogeneration units in the north. Affected by factors such as gas supply, pipeline construction, and electricity price capacity, the installed capacity of gas and electricity in Guangdong, Jiangsu Zhejiang Shanghai, Beijing Tianjin and other regions is relatively high, accounting for about 80% of the national total. The proportion of peak shaving gas and electricity in provinces and cities such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is about 70% to 80%; Due to the high demand for winter heating in Beijing and Tianjin, all units are cogeneration units. Jiangsu has a higher industrial heating load, with over 70% being cogeneration units.

　　目前，我國天然氣價格政策仍在執(zhí)行2014年出臺的《關(guān)于規(guī)范天然氣發(fā)電上網(wǎng)電價管理有關(guān)問題的通知》（發(fā)改價格〔2014〕3009號）文件，天然氣發(fā)電定價權(quán)下放到省級價格主管部門，建立了氣電價格聯(lián)動機制并明確了封頂價格，鼓勵地方政府通過財政補貼、氣價優(yōu)惠疏導(dǎo)天然氣發(fā)電價格的矛盾。

　　At present, China's natural gas pricing policy is still implementing the "Notice on Regulating the Management of On grid Electricity Prices for Natural Gas Power Generation" (NDRC Price [2014] No. 3009) issued in 2014. The pricing power of natural gas power generation has been delegated to provincial price authorities, a gas electricity price linkage mechanism has been established, and a cap price has been clarified. Local governments are encouraged to alleviate the contradictions in natural gas power generation prices through financial subsidies and gas price discounts.

　　在我國，各地氣電電價模式和水平不一。當(dāng)前，中國氣電執(zhí)行單一制和兩部制這兩種電價方式。2014年起，上海、浙江、江蘇、河南陸續(xù)開始執(zhí)行兩部制電價，廣東更是把燃?xì)鈾C組推向電力市場。據(jù)統(tǒng)計，單一制電價為0.61~0.69元/千瓦時；兩部制電價中容量電價每月為28~48元/千瓦、電量電價為0.44~0.55元/千瓦時。

　　In China, the pricing patterns and levels of gas and electricity vary from place to place. Currently, China implements two electricity pricing methods for gas and electricity: a single system and a two-part system. Since 2014, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Henan have successively implemented a two-part electricity pricing system, and Guangdong has pushed gas turbines into the electricity market. According to statistics, the single system electricity price is 0.61~0.69 yuan/kWh; The capacity electricity price in the two-part electricity pricing system is 28-48 yuan/kilowatt per month, and the electricity price is 0.44-0.55 yuan/kilowatt hour.

　　由于容量電價基本可補償電廠固定成本，電量電價與變動成本持平或略高，兩部制電價對氣電企業(yè)經(jīng)營形成兜底。可是，即便在有容量電價保障的省份，天然氣發(fā)電廠的經(jīng)營也不容易。

　　Due to the fact that the capacity electricity price can basically compensate for the fixed costs of power plants, the electricity price and variable costs are equal or slightly higher, and the two-part electricity price forms a bottom line for the operation of gas and power enterprises. However, even in provinces with capacity pricing guarantees, the operation of natural gas power plants is not easy.

　　除了燃料成本一直處于高位外，氣和電長協(xié)簽訂時間不匹配問題也很突出。電力市場長協(xié)簽訂窗口期主要在11-12月份，但是天然氣等一次能源長協(xié)簽訂窗口一般在次年3月份，電廠難以根據(jù)鎖定的天然氣長協(xié)量價決策電力長協(xié)量價，導(dǎo)致兩者存在較大的錯配風(fēng)險。

　　In addition to the consistently high fuel costs, the issue of mismatched signing times for gas and electricity long-term agreements is also prominent. The signing window for long-term agreements in the electricity market is mainly in November December, but the signing window for long-term agreements for primary energy such as natural gas is generally in March of the following year. Power plants find it difficult to make decisions on the long-term agreement price for electricity based on the locked natural gas price, resulting in a significant risk of mismatch between the two.

　　燃?xì)怆姀S的實際用氣量波動非常大。作為調(diào)峰機組，其出力情況往往受電力市場供需的影響，并不能完全符合供氣協(xié)議的剛性計劃要求。“計劃氣”與“市場電”的矛盾反過來又限制了燃?xì)鈾C組的調(diào)峰能力。

　　The actual gas consumption of gas-fired power plants fluctuates greatly. As a peak shaving unit, its output is often affected by the supply and demand of the electricity market, and cannot fully meet the rigid planning requirements of the gas supply agreement. The contradiction between "planned gas" and "market electricity" in turn limits the peak shaving capacity of gas turbines.

　　天然氣發(fā)電受天然氣調(diào)度、電力調(diào)度的雙重制約，氣、電供需錯配可能出現(xiàn)“頂峰缺氣”、“谷段多氣”的現(xiàn)象。以廣東為例，存在電力日計劃與天然氣日指定時間不匹配問題。發(fā)電用氣需求計劃確定時間為用氣前一天的晚上10點，天然氣需求計劃則是用氣前一天早上10點前。廣東現(xiàn)行的電力現(xiàn)貨交易機制使得各發(fā)電用戶無法確定是否可以摘單發(fā)電指標(biāo)，發(fā)電用氣需求無法提前確定。天然氣需求計劃由于天然氣管道運行的特殊性，計劃性比較強，發(fā)電計劃用氣確定時間滯后于天然氣需求計劃上報時間。

　　Natural gas power generation is subject to the dual constraints of natural gas dispatch and power dispatch, and the mismatch between gas and electricity supply and demand may result in "peak gas shortage" and "valley gas excess". Taking Guangdong as an example, there is a problem of mismatch between the daily electricity plan and the designated time for natural gas. The gas demand plan for power generation is determined at 10 pm the day before gas consumption, while the natural gas demand plan is determined before 10 am the day before gas consumption. The current spot trading mechanism for electricity in Guangdong makes it difficult for power generation users to determine whether they can obtain electricity generation quotas, and the demand for electricity generation gas cannot be determined in advance. Due to the special operation of natural gas pipelines, the natural gas demand plan has strong planning, and the determination of gas consumption for power generation plans lags behind the submission time of the natural gas demand plan.

　　當(dāng)前電力現(xiàn)貨市場采用“邊際定價”機制。該機制下，某一時段所有參與發(fā)電的機組，都會統(tǒng)一按“邊際機組”的報價來結(jié)算。“在缺電時段，天然氣機組依據(jù)自身較高的燃料成本，報出如1元/kWh的價格，若中標(biāo)應(yīng)遵循電價出清規(guī)則，以1元/kWh執(zhí)行發(fā)電。但實際規(guī)則中，這類報價被歸為‘強征’范疇：機組仍然發(fā)電，卻會被排除在定價排序之外，無法按自報價格結(jié)算，只能執(zhí)行規(guī)則出清的低價。而該價格可能顯著低于發(fā)電成本。”一位電廠人士向記者介紹道。針對氣電定價問題，地方政府存在兩方面顧慮。一方面擔(dān)心，若允許氣電按自身報價定價，可能拉高全社會整體電價水平；另一方面，若氣電高定價成為市場基準(zhǔn)，可能會讓其他原本成本較低的低價電源，因按此高價結(jié)算獲得過高利潤。

　　The current electricity spot market adopts a "marginal pricing" mechanism. Under this mechanism, all units participating in power generation during a certain period will be settled based on the quote of the "marginal unit". During periods of power shortage, natural gas units quote a price of 1 yuan/kWh based on their higher fuel costs. If they win the bid, they should follow the electricity price clearing rules and generate electricity at 1 yuan/kWh. But in practice, such quotations are classified as' forced collection ': if the unit still generates electricity, it will be excluded from the pricing ranking and cannot be settled according to the self quoted price, only the low price cleared by the rules can be executed. And the price may be significantly lower than the cost of electricity generation. ”A power plant personnel introduced to the reporter. Local governments have two concerns regarding the pricing of gas and electricity. On the one hand, there is concern that if gas and electricity are allowed to be priced according to their own prices, it may raise the overall electricity price level of the whole society; On the other hand, if the high pricing of gas and electricity becomes the market benchmark, it may allow other low-priced power sources with lower costs to settle at this high price and gain excessive profits.

　　由于現(xiàn)貨價格是月度、年度交易的重要參考基準(zhǔn)，當(dāng)現(xiàn)貨價因限制被壓低后，發(fā)電企業(yè)與電力用戶在制定明年長協(xié)時，都會以這一價格為依據(jù)。這樣造成的結(jié)果是，天然氣發(fā)電機組在長協(xié)合同簽訂時，依然不是反映成本的真實價格。

　　Due to the fact that spot prices are an important reference benchmark for monthly and annual transactions, when spot prices are lowered due to restrictions, power generation companies and electricity users will use this price as a basis when formulating long-term agreements for next year. The result of this is that natural gas generators still do not reflect the true cost when signing long-term contracts.

　　“無須因電價過高顧慮而限制氣電合理定價，若擔(dān)憂低價其他電源利潤過高，可出臺類似新能源機制電價的專項政策--將水電、核電、新能源等電源超出合理范圍的超額利潤回收，再通過合理機制返還給全社會。這樣一來既避免了低價電源利潤失衡，也為氣電按成本合理定價留出了空間。”上述人士建議道。

　　There is no need to restrict the reasonable pricing of gas and electricity due to concerns about high electricity prices. If there are concerns about low prices and high profits from other power sources, a special policy similar to the new energy mechanism electricity price can be introduced to recover excess profits from power sources such as hydropower, nuclear power, and new energy that exceed the reasonable range, and then return them to the whole society through a reasonable mechanism. This not only avoids the imbalance of profits from low-priced power sources, but also leaves room for reasonable pricing of gas and electricity based on cost, "suggested the above-mentioned person.

　　業(yè)內(nèi)的共識是，氣電具有負(fù)荷調(diào)節(jié)范圍寬、響應(yīng)速度快等特點，相較于其他類型機組具備更快更強的調(diào)峰能力。但目前各地尚未建立全面的電力輔助服務(wù)價格機制，調(diào)峰價值并未充分得到市場的認(rèn)可。

　　The industry consensus is that gas and electricity have the characteristics of wide load regulation range and fast response speed, and have faster and stronger peak shaving capabilities compared to other types of units. However, a comprehensive pricing mechanism for power auxiliary services has not yet been established in various regions, and the peak shaving value has not been fully recognized by the market.

　　相比之下，在國外完全競爭或近似完全競爭的電力市場中，用電高峰期和非高峰期的電價差異極大，為平時利用率不高但在高峰負(fù)荷時期提供電力保障的氣電機組提供了盈利渠道。此外，當(dāng)前碳交易和排污權(quán)交易市場尚未成熟，燃?xì)獍l(fā)電環(huán)保低碳等環(huán)境價值尚未顯現(xiàn)出來。

　　In contrast, in electricity markets with perfect or near perfect competition abroad, there is a significant difference in electricity prices between peak and off peak periods, providing a profit channel for gas turbines that have low utilization rates but provide power security during peak load periods. In addition, the current carbon trading and emission trading markets are not yet mature, and the environmental value of gas power generation, such as environmental protection and low-carbon, has not yet been demonstrated.

　　未來的空間

　　Future space

　　在燃?xì)獍l(fā)電占比較高的國家，燃?xì)獍l(fā)電用氣是天然氣消費的主要部分。在中國，隨著燃?xì)獍l(fā)電的發(fā)展，氣電占天然氣消費量的比例正在增長。

　　In countries with a high proportion of gas-fired power generation, gas consumption is the main part of natural gas consumption for gas-fired power generation. In China, with the development of gas-fired power generation, the proportion of gas-fired electricity in natural gas consumption is increasing.

　　最新發(fā)布的《中國天然氣發(fā)展報告（2025）》顯示，2024年，工業(yè)燃料用氣占41%，城市燃?xì)庥脷庹急?4%，是天然氣消費的主體，發(fā)電用氣占天然氣消費量的18%，同比增長9.5%。而在較發(fā)達國家，燃?xì)獍l(fā)電用氣一般占到天然氣消費的1/3左右。相比之下，中國燃?xì)獍l(fā)電用氣量占比不算高。天然氣消費主要用在工業(yè)燃料和城市燃?xì)猓绕涫乔锒竟?jié)北方地區(qū)采暖高峰，在天然氣緊缺的情況下需要首先保障城市燃?xì)夂途用裼脷狻?/p>

　　The latest "China Natural Gas Development Report (2025)" shows that in 2024, industrial fuel gas accounts for 41%, urban gas accounts for 34%, and it is the main body of natural gas consumption. Power generation gas accounts for 18% of natural gas consumption, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. In more developed countries, gas for power generation generally accounts for about one-third of natural gas consumption. In contrast, the proportion of gas consumption for gas-fired power generation in China is not particularly high. Natural gas consumption is mainly used as industrial fuel and urban gas, especially during the peak heating season in northern regions in autumn and winter. In the case of natural gas shortage, it is necessary to first ensure the supply of urban gas and residential gas.

　　我國氣電裝機經(jīng)歷過三次規(guī)模化擴張。2005-2010年，隨著西氣東輸工程的推進、深圳大鵬LNG接收站等基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的落地，配套燃?xì)怆姀S同步規(guī)劃建設(shè)，為氣電規(guī)模化發(fā)展奠定了基礎(chǔ)。2014年，環(huán)保政策為氣電裝機發(fā)展第二次助推力：彼時北方地區(qū)大力推進“煤改氣”與清潔取暖工作，同時在環(huán)境容量要求較高的區(qū)域，新增一批燃?xì)怆姀S，氣電在環(huán)保導(dǎo)向下實現(xiàn)進一步擴張。進入新能源裝機快速發(fā)展的階段，受新能源發(fā)電間歇性、波動性的影響，調(diào)峰需求日益凸顯，在西北、西南等新能源發(fā)展迅速且天然氣氣源有保障的區(qū)域，燃?xì)獍l(fā)電憑借其靈活調(diào)峰特性，迎來了新的發(fā)展機遇。

　　China's gas and electricity installed capacity has undergone three large-scale expansions. From 2005 to 2010, with the advancement of the West East Gas Pipeline Project and the landing of infrastructure such as the Shenzhen Dapeng LNG receiving station, the synchronous planning and construction of supporting gas power plants laid the foundation for the large-scale development of gas and electricity. In 2014, environmental policies provided the second impetus for the development of gas and electricity installed capacity: at that time, the northern region vigorously promoted the "coal to gas" and clean heating work. At the same time, a number of gas power plants were added in areas with high environmental capacity requirements, and gas and electricity were further expanded under the guidance of environmental protection. Entering the stage of rapid development of new energy installed capacity, the demand for peak shaving is becoming increasingly prominent due to the intermittent and fluctuating nature of new energy power generation. In regions such as the northwest and southwest where new energy development is rapid and natural gas sources are guaranteed, gas-fired power generation, with its flexible peak shaving characteristics, has ushered in new development opportunities.

　　分析人士認(rèn)為，以前燃?xì)獍l(fā)電的投資主要布局在沿海區(qū)域和具有支付能力的城市，未來燃?xì)獍l(fā)電的增長極主要在具有價格競爭力的天然氣資源和具有調(diào)峰需求的新能源地區(qū)，如西北和四川、重慶等。

　　Analysts believe that in the past, investment in gas-fired power generation was mainly focused on coastal areas and cities with payment capabilities. In the future, the growth pole of gas-fired power generation will mainly be in natural gas resources with price competitiveness and new energy regions with peak shaving demand, such as Northwest China, Sichuan, Chongqing, etc.

　　從投資主體看，以往天然氣發(fā)電的投資主體主要是“五大四小”發(fā)電企業(yè)和三大石油企業(yè)，現(xiàn)在地方能源企業(yè)和民營企業(yè)多有涉足。一些地方能源集團因為有LNG接收站，將燃?xì)鈾C組在接收站附近布局，經(jīng)營情況相對較好。

　　From the perspective of investment entities, in the past, the main investment entities for natural gas power generation were the "five big and four small" power generation enterprises and the three major oil enterprises. Nowadays, local energy enterprises and private enterprises are more involved. Due to the presence of LNG receiving stations, some local energy groups have deployed gas turbines near the receiving stations, resulting in relatively good business performance.

　　從發(fā)展方向來看，燃?xì)獍l(fā)電全面走向市場化已是必然趨勢。隨著電力市場機制的不斷完善，氣電企業(yè)的核心競爭力將不再是“政策依賴”，而是“氣源獲取能力”--能否找到上游低價氣源、能否通過供應(yīng)鏈管理控制成本，將直接決定企業(yè)的市場地位。

　　From the perspective of development direction, the comprehensive marketization of gas-fired power generation is an inevitable trend. With the continuous improvement of the electricity market mechanism, the core competitiveness of gas power enterprises will no longer be "policy dependence", but "gas source acquisition ability" - whether they can find upstream low-priced gas sources and control costs through supply chain management will directly determine the market position of the enterprise.

　　2022年初，俄烏沖突爆發(fā)后全球天然氣供給格局加速演變，俄管道氣供給斷崖下滑而全球?qū)NG需求激增，LNG出口終端建設(shè)周期較長且疫情期間各出口國對LNG終端投資較少，導(dǎo)致全球天然氣出口終端產(chǎn)能釋放高峰期集中于2025年后。根據(jù)在建項目建設(shè)節(jié)奏，2026-2030年天然氣供給或?qū)⑦M入快速增長期。在供需持續(xù)寬松的背景下，國際氣價中長期或呈現(xiàn)下行趨勢，有望進一步刺激下游需求增長。

　　At the beginning of 2022, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the global natural gas supply pattern accelerated its evolution. The Russian pipeline gas supply declined precipitously while the global demand for LNG surged. The construction cycle of LNG export terminals was long and the export countries invested less in LNG terminals during the epidemic, leading to the peak of global natural gas export terminal capacity release concentrated after 2025. According to the construction pace of ongoing projects, natural gas supply may enter a period of rapid growth from 2026 to 2030. Against the backdrop of sustained loose supply and demand, international gas prices may show a downward trend in the medium to long term, which is expected to further stimulate downstream demand growth.

　　而“三桶油”作為上游天然氣的主要供應(yīng)商，在供給逐漸寬松的背景下，也在為天然氣尋找更多的消費場景。“‘三桶油’決策的背后邏輯是對未來5~10年國際天然氣市場供需的判斷。它們認(rèn)為，市場將進入供大于求的階段。工業(yè)用氣和城燃增長空間有限。中海油很早就成立專門的氣電公司，把氣電作為一項業(yè)務(wù)板塊來發(fā)展。中石油很早就與發(fā)電公司合作，參股了多個氣電項目，自身也有自發(fā)自用的氣電項目。中石化亦開始與發(fā)電企業(yè)合作入股氣電項目。”一位油氣公司人士稱。

　　As the main supplier of upstream natural gas, "Three Barrel Oil" is also seeking more consumption scenarios for natural gas in the context of gradually relaxed supply. The logic behind the 'three barrels of oil' decision is a judgment on the supply and demand of the international natural gas market in the next 5-10 years. They believe that the market will enter a stage of oversupply. The growth space for industrial gas and urban combustion is limited. CNOOC has established a dedicated gas and electricity company for a long time, developing gas and electricity as a business sector. PetroChina has cooperated with power generation companies for a long time, participating in multiple gas and electricity projects and also having self owned gas and electricity projects. Sinopec has also begun to cooperate with power generation companies to invest in gas and electricity projects, "said an oil and gas company insider.

　　2024年6月，國家發(fā)展改革委發(fā)布了《天然氣利用管理辦法》(新版《天然氣利用政策》)，明確將氣源落實、具有經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)性的天然氣調(diào)峰電站項目、天然氣熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目、油氣電氫綜合能源供應(yīng)項目、終端天然氣摻氫示范項目等天然氣安全高效利用新業(yè)態(tài)等列為天然氣優(yōu)先利用領(lǐng)域。

　　In June 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Management Measures for Natural Gas Utilization" (new version of the "Natural Gas Utilization Policy"), which clearly listed new forms of natural gas safe and efficient utilization, such as gas source implementation, economically sustainable natural gas peak shaving power station projects, natural gas cogeneration projects, oil and gas electricity hydrogen comprehensive energy supply projects, and terminal natural gas hydrogen blending demonstration projects, as priority areas for natural gas utilization.

　　未來，我國新建天然氣發(fā)電項目應(yīng)該更加“因地制宜”，如在江浙滬、廣東、北京等用電需求高的區(qū)域，大力發(fā)展H級和F級高效重型燃機及分布式燃機；有較強調(diào)峰需求的區(qū)域，西部北部氣源豐富、新能源發(fā)電較多的地區(qū)適當(dāng)布局調(diào)峰氣電。如在新疆、青海、內(nèi)蒙古等天然氣和風(fēng)光資源富集區(qū)配套建設(shè)一批燃?xì)庹{(diào)峰電站，建立協(xié)同配合的“氣風(fēng)互補”或“氣光互補”發(fā)電組合，以進一步減少棄風(fēng)棄光，提升可再生能源發(fā)電總出力水平、電網(wǎng)運行的可靠性以及電源外送能力。

　　In the future, new natural gas power generation projects in China should be more tailored to local conditions. For example, in regions with high electricity demand such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Beijing, efforts should be made to develop H-class and F-class high-efficiency heavy-duty gas turbines and distributed gas turbines; Regions with strong demand for peak shaving, such as the western and northern regions with abundant gas sources and abundant new energy generation, should appropriately layout peak shaving gas and electricity. If a batch of gas peak shaving power stations are built in natural gas and wind and solar resource rich areas such as Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Inner Mongolia, and a coordinated "gas wind complementary" or "gas solar complementary" power generation combination is established to further reduce wind and solar power curtailment, improve the total output level of renewable energy generation, the reliability of power grid operation, and the power transmission capacity.

　　根據(jù)中石油規(guī)劃總院，預(yù)計2030年氣電裝機規(guī)模將達到2.2億千瓦左右，發(fā)電年用氣量將達約1250億立方米。對于天然氣發(fā)電行業(yè)來說，加強天然氣與電力市場的銜接尤為重要，健全天然氣發(fā)電等調(diào)節(jié)性資源價格機制，可以更好地發(fā)揮其在構(gòu)建新型電力系統(tǒng)中的支撐作用。只有理順機制才能夠解決氣電進入現(xiàn)貨市場后，如何通過多渠道的市場機制回收發(fā)電成本的問題。

　　According to the China Petroleum Planning Institute, it is expected that the installed capacity of gas and electricity will reach around 220 million kilowatts by 2030, and the annual gas consumption for power generation will reach about 125 billion cubic meters. For the natural gas power generation industry, strengthening the connection between natural gas and electricity markets is particularly important. Improving the price mechanism of regulatory resources such as natural gas power generation can better play its supporting role in building a new type of power system. Only by streamlining the mechanism can we solve the problem of how to recover power generation costs through multi-channel market mechanisms after gas and electricity enter the spot market.

　　7月24日，廣東省發(fā)改委、廣東省能源局和國家能源局南方監(jiān)管局聯(lián)合發(fā)布了《關(guān)于調(diào)整廣東省煤電氣電容量電價的通知》（以下簡稱《通知》）。《通知》要求提高氣電機組容量電價，對廣東省內(nèi)不同類型燃?xì)鈾C組容量電價補貼做出區(qū)分，加大了氣電機組固定成本傳導(dǎo)力度，進一步為氣電機組提供了穩(wěn)定的保底收益。后期在面對燃料成本波動、電力市場需求變化等情況時，減少了因電量電價波動帶來的利潤大幅起伏，一定程度上可改善公司的盈利狀況。

　　On July 24th, the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Guangdong Provincial Energy Administration, and the Southern Regulatory Bureau of the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Capacity Electricity Price of Guangdong Province's Coal, Electricity, and Thermal Power" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). The Notice requires an increase in the capacity electricity price for gas turbine units, distinguishing between subsidies for different types of gas turbine units in Guangdong Province, and increasing the transmission of fixed costs for gas turbine units, further providing stable guaranteed income for gas turbine units. In the later stage, when facing fluctuations in fuel costs and changes in electricity market demand, the significant profit fluctuations caused by fluctuations in electricity prices were reduced, which can to some extent improve the company's profitability.

　　可以肯定的是，燃?xì)獍l(fā)電在未來的新型電力系統(tǒng)中無法成為主角。但以中國龐大的電力需求基數(shù)，即便天然氣發(fā)電的占比上升1個百分點，對于天然氣的市場而言將是巨大的提升。

　　It can be certain that gas-fired power generation will not become the protagonist in the future new power system. But with China's huge electricity demand base, even if the proportion of natural gas power generation increases by 1 percentage point, it will be a huge boost for the natural gas market.

　　本文由 燃?xì)獍l(fā)電機組  友情奉獻.更多有關(guān)的知識請點擊  http://www.lengmiu.cn/   真誠的態(tài)度.為您提供為識我們將會陸續(xù)向大家奉獻.敬請期待.

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